SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Months after its elections that most of the West considers a sham, Myanmar is trying to establish diplomacy internationally, even as a brutal civil war continues inside the country. Michael Sullivan reports. And heads up - this report contains the sounds of gunfire.
(SOUNDBITE OF GUNFIRE)
MICHAEL SULLIVAN, BYLINE: Not that long ago, Myanmar's military, or Tatmadaw, was reeling from a determined opposition, with ethnic armed organizations routing the military in the north of the country and arming and emboldening volunteer people's defense forces elsewhere. But that time has passed.
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MORGAN MICHAELS: The military is beginning to mount a comeback on the battlefield, retaking key crossroads, strategic corridors and now just beginning to launch thrusts directly into the opposition strongholds.
SULLIVAN: Morgan Michaels is a Myanmar analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore.
MICHAELS: So we've seen a complete shift, a reversal in the trajectory of the conflict. Now, it's the one who has the initiative, and it's the opposition forces that are in serious trouble and in some cases even beginning to collapse.
SULLIVAN: And the government has been quick to trumpet its recent gains on state-run media...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED NEWS ANCHOR: (Non-English language spoken).
SULLIVAN: ...Like this anchor announcing the recent capture of a key township and gold mining town in the Sagaing Region, with government troops celebrating.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED SOLDIERS: (Chanting in non-English language).
SULLIVAN: And in the commercial hub of the country, Yangon, it's sometimes hard to tell there's a civil war still raging in the countryside.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
UNIDENTIFIED MUSICAL ARTIST: (Singing in non-English language).
SULLIVAN: Night clubs like this one are booming and real estate prices downtown - skyrocketing. A new normal more than five years after the coup, says analyst Min Zaw Oo.
MIN ZAW OO: In Yangon, the land prices in the city - the land price is actually more than what we can buy in - like, in Maryland suburb.
SULLIVAN: Much of the turnaround in the war, analysts say, can be attributed to the military adopting new tactics and with China putting its thumb on the scale in their favor in order to protect Beijing's economic interests in the country. Ethnic armed organizations linked to China that used to provide arms to local resistance fighters, or PDFs, have turned off the spigot to those local fighters, for example, with the rest of the world preoccupied or indifferent.
RICHARD HORSEY: It's not a good time to be a Myanmar revolutionary trying to fight to overthrow the control of the military.
SULLIVAN: That's Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar analyst at the International Crisis Group. In addition, the self-proclaimed government in exile, or NUG, hasn't proven itself a reliable partner for local resistance groups either, says analyst Min Zaw Oo.
MIN: Many PDFs or the local fighters, they arm themselves rather than they receive arms and ammunitions from NUG to full extent. But most of these units struggle themselves.
SULLIVAN: Struggle in part because both local donors and many fighters are exhausted and disheartened after more than five years of war. Thirty-year-old PDF medic Kant Kaw left the movement a few months back.
KANT KAW: (Speaking Burmese).
SULLIVAN: "After the coup in 2021, I had a chance to go to another country, but I went to the jungle to fight," she says. "But now, after years of fighting, I feel we're at a dead end. Corruption, incompetence all have made me frustrated," she says, "I sacrificed my life for the revolution, but all I got back was disappointment."
And now there's a new, emboldened military-backed government, one that's seized the diplomatic initiative with its recent election and is confident Russia and China will fill any gaps created by shortages created by the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Richard Horsey.
HORSEY: The military will make sure it has the diesel and the aviation fuel and the fertilizer that it needs to make explosives, but it'll be the ordinary people of Myanmar who will pay the price.
SULLIVAN: For NPR News, I'm Michael Sullivan in Chiang Rai, Thailand.
(SOUNDBITE OF BADBADNOTGOOD SONG, "FOOD") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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