A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For more on the choices congressional leaders face now, let's go to Alex Conant. He's a Republican strategist and a partner at Firehouse Strategies. So, Alex, as of this morning, neither party is backing down. Do you expect anyone to blink by midnight?
ALEX CONANT: It's possible but, I think, unlikely. I think your audience and everyone should be very clear on what is actually happening here, which is earlier this year, the Senate Democrats were faced with a similar choice. Do we keep the government open using Biden-era levels of funding with a CR, or do we shut it down? And at that time, Chuck Schumer thought the move was obvious. Why would we shut down the government and get blamed for that? Let's keep it going, especially since these are Biden-era levels of funding. He got skewered by progressives for doing that to the point where he had to cancel his book tour, you may recall.
And so fast-forward to today, where the government is about to run out of money tonight, Schumer cannot cave or be seen as caving or giving in to Republicans or he's, I think, at serious risk of losing his job to progressives. And so he is taking this stance that they're going to draw some sort of concessions from the White House. The White House has no reason to concede anything, especially a major policy reform like either undoing some of the health care changes that were in the - in Trump's signature tax cuts or by the Obamacare tax extenders, which is a significant and expensive policy change. The Republicans have no reason to cave right now. They want to keep funding the government, at least for a couple more weeks.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
CONANT: And then I think that they will be open to beginning negotiations on some of those other issues as part of a larger funding deal, but they have no interest in caving. I think the only way the government doesn't shut down tonight is if some moderate Senate Democrats cave and they say, look, we don't want to shut down the government. We don't want to get blamed for this. We're happy to keep going at Biden-era funding levels.
MARTÍNEZ: You know, Alex, I hate to sound cynical with this, but do you think sometimes either political party wants a shutdown to happen just to prove a point?
CONANT: Certainly the base. Certainly the base. Look, I worked in the Senate in 2013, when Republicans there, led by Ted Cruz, shut down the government for quite a while trying to seek some sort of Obamacare changes. And there were certainly members of the Republican Senate that time that were happy to see the government shutdown, happy to try to force a point. They were richly rewarded by their own base for doing it. Of course, that shutdown failed for Republicans as well. Obama had no reason to concede anything to Ted Cruz and more conservative members of the Senate. And ultimately, moderate Senate Republicans caved and we reopened the government. I think a similar scenario is likely to play out here, ironically, also over health care funding.
MARTÍNEZ: So if, say, Democrats don't get what they want, how do you expect Republicans will respond when their constituents face higher insurance costs?
CONANT: Well, I think that's a very good question and one that I think Republicans are open to addressing. I think you do see moderate Senate Republicans, moderate House Republicans - they certainly don't want to raise the cost of health care going into an election year. And so I think that they are open to some sort of extensions for some of these tax credits that are set to expire at the end of the year. They're just not going to do it with a gun pointed to their head, you know.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
CONANT: They want to do it as part of some sort of longer-term negotiation, not because the government is about to shut down tonight.
MARTÍNEZ: Do you think the White House will follow through on its vow to fire people if the shutdown occurs?
CONANT: I think it's going to try. I mean, this - obviously, this White House has shown zero reluctance to fire federal employees whenever they can. And I think if they can use the shutdown to do that and potentially, you know, make some political pain for Democrats as part of the process, I think they're going to try. Now, whether the courts and others will let them do it, I think, remains to be seen.
MARTÍNEZ: If the shutdown happens, which party gets the most blame?
CONANT: Well, I don't think anybody likes a shutdown. I think in the beginning, you'll see both the Democratic base and the Republican base rally behind their leaders. I think the longer this goes on, the harder it becomes for Democrats to explain why they won't reopen the government at Biden-era funding levels when Republicans are offering or are going to be offering to negotiate these things in the coming weeks as part of a larger funding deal.
MARTÍNEZ: And really quick, I mean, how does either party in Congress negotiate when a president really can, you know, void their work, considering what the Supreme Court just helped President Trump do last week?
CONANT: Yeah, I think I - look, I think that's a valid question. Something that becomes - that remains - that - I think that is a valid question and something that Democrats are certainly going to push. I would remind them and Republicans that, you know, we have elections. Republicans won't be in the White House forever. Whatever power the Supreme Court is giving Trump right now a future Democratic president's going to have as well.
MARTÍNEZ: Republican strategist Alex Conant is with Firehouse Strategies. Alex, thanks.
CONANT: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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